Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: AT

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2008

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2008

PMs:

2000 – 2008

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
NOx1A3ai(ii)2399269629213083319436013987412942514135625461405487502759016788733077817711
NMVOC1A3bi401404437343114422104072837394326492901727813239272120319359185691702214932129851110896578062
NMVOC3B113262108808549844977248176802388858241776694281024911629122061074011676137031255712828
NMVOC3C127901044181407955715874187097767669646430765979428598861172307500880180658239
SOx1A1b225221102847342230302984348836623795355134413617369136833835335036913234851
SOx1A2a6729534834793940424342154760475547024734446547974896503647075236576856035293
NH31A3bi2694423850895843652663455764529653574679425639993977370232272780232719881599
NH34B9a4861498747635028490848684520516150105105409944054405457145714571457145714571
CO1A3bi568372632187602400582318556378512050448730402374394034343363311453292176290712276439250353224564196036173777145756
CONATIONALTOTAL1435271150549914719291438946138720912764011253422115936511151841040079966092930094891318885140841622831993785522741965696098

HM (Unit = g)
  1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
Pb1A1a904845944650755532585577528110518748643830694831628847548519749047841485988773117371611985311196976141262115591301603296
Pb1A2b4082152378832329856932800778265352831111853112280261366120886381564162103907610523241052704105268410526851052517105247310525641052566
Pb1A2c206425238200268527180457179519201934259596227978187626229103256432251043340943473969569527447379379384293916226852
Pb1A2fi4379491461354638303483488787334390229528292495155185569113755501029918511657550722525685525493516165662472725335877442986174
Pb1A31676288561248288118953941260029001377854361803217876153091481014571139721291712767120511090410559104131029610056
Pb1A3aii(i)172602817786581832894188878319463761414161718141215161517181819
Pb1A3bi14658582611663411677917573494788252935589199129256888894528892872089499832102551016810010981997088854
Pb1A3bii1467008511395595838102256689663346120815790771757747735711683665650660655655609
Pb2C1320916262709022918608240151449771202434246792994259928479100347027004906128548048853501925649015567543958986906492852660756469999156975351
PbFUTOTAL21908995117076905712388298889048948623185981605156215486569144703661298892012416265119085141204055212294023126504611305560213706202139076421441806414628555
PbNATIONALTOTAL21859402017925310912521558488030185603991611605118115486147144695311298911212415904119084551204126312296123126535301305894013709687139108111442121514630913
CdFUTOTAL157821315266771246759116223410632119748589951469699499001549473749256599487069463529886459888901074220107808111048321145924
CdNATIONALTOTAL157844715271711247134116257210634329750949957409702299008989478799263659497559479229906439910001076411107995611066661147420
Hg1A2fi710856590574442930301806155463105422100215118238103063118410118605147719145528164983139780163104188758198944199487
Hg2B5a27011725210723409921610519810318007718007918007811008245083868185909288927588
HgFUTOTAL214199920378871640303139109611783301199966115801011329449490369343098948859548979269809709169504121001214102307310166461019584
HgNATIONALTOTAL214208120380601640434139121511784081200049115821811330429492979344868951329552649275299716159511501001981102372910172881020107

POP (Unit = mg)
  1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
DIOX1A4ai1919179618721432142813701678171513891776186514231307152810911137124312782128
HCB1A4ai14534571336004140041510307881042099980651124255112559979718891223591128902794766086224110068417101307351917960088567511428824